Hope is still not lost and Black knows no lead is insurmountable in series after San Miguel Beer came back from a 0-3 hellhole to win the 2016 Philippine Cup.“There are instances when teams were down 0-3, came back, and won. We saw San Miguel do it recently, so it is possible,” he said.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSRedemption is sweet for Ginebra, Scottie ThompsonSPORTSMayweather beats Pacquiao, Canelo for ‘Fighter of the Decade’SPORTSFederer blasts lack of communication on Australian Open smogBut if Meralco wants to make it a series, the team must start focusing on the little things first as Black hopes the Bolts will be able to regain the deadly form they had back in the elimination round all the way to the semifinals.“They’re not performing right now at the level that we performed at during the eliminations, in the quarterfinals, and in the semifinals. I would imagine Ginebra has a lot to do with that because they’re also playing very good basketball. But no question, my locals need to step up a little bit to support Allen (Durham) and make some shots. That’s really the problem right now,” he said. Judy Ann’s 1st project for 2020 is giving her a ‘stomachache’ OSG plea to revoke ABS-CBN franchise ‘a duplicitous move’ – Lacson The three-point shot has been a huge weapon for Meralco this conference it’s been a different story in the final. The long balls have been largely absent as they shot 8-of-24 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and further plummeted to a 5-of-23 sniping in Game 2.“Ranidel (de Ocampo) is not making his threes. Jared (Dillinger) is not making his threes. We’re not getting that spacing that we need around Allen to be able to have him successful. We’ve had that the entire conference but in this series, in the first two games, we haven’t been able to knock down our outside shots,” lamented Black.Black is not ready to give up with another game set on Wednesday.“We just didn’t finish the game very well today. But until they win four games, we’ll be out there fighting.”ADVERTISEMENT Margot Robbie talks about filming ‘Bombshell’s’ disturbing sexual harassment scene Carpio hits red carpet treatment for China Coast Guard PLAY LIST 02:14Carpio hits red carpet treatment for China Coast Guard02:56NCRPO pledges to donate P3.5 million to victims of Taal eruption00:56Heavy rain brings some relief in Australia02:37Calm moments allow Taal folks some respite03:23Negosyo sa Tagaytay City, bagsak sa pag-aalboroto ng Bulkang Taal01:13Christian Standhardinger wins PBA Best Player award Jake says relationship with Shaina ‘goes beyond physical attraction’ Jo Koy: My brain always wants to think funny Jake says relationship with Shaina ‘goes beyond physical attraction’ Coco’s house rules on ‘Probinsyano’ set LATEST STORIES Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next Norman Black. Photo by Tristan Tamayo/ INQUIRER.netWith Meralco down 0-2 in the 2017 PBA Governors’ Cup Finals, coach Norman Black acknowledged that Game 3 on Wednesday is a must-win for the Bolts.“We know what it’s like to be down 0-2, and most of the time, the teams that were down 2-0 did not bounce back to win a championship,” Black said in the aftermath of the Bolts’ 86-76 Game 2 defeat to Barangay Ginebra on Sunday.ADVERTISEMENT MOST READ It’s too early to present Duterte’s ‘legacy’ – Lacson Kiss-and-tell matinee idol’s conquests: True stories or tall tales? View comments Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Cone braces for tough Meralco in Game 3: ‘They have a lot of punches left’
By Ramona LuthiResidents and taxi operators of Diamond-Grove Housing Scheme on Friday spoke to Guyana Times about the roads within the area, relaying that while some streets have been left to deteriorate, others only last a short time after being repaired.The Diamond-Grove Housing Scheme, East Bank Demerara, has grown significantly over the years, housing hundreds of residents. However, according to the residents, their main physical issue in the area, is the terrible state of the naked roads.Residents complained that because of the deteriorated unpaved roads, taxi operators would deny them transportation to their homes, since the bumpy rides take a toll on the vehicles. “I live in 15th Street, and that’s a good way in. The scheme got 21 avenues, excluding avenues A and B. When I stop out at the car park, no body don’t wanna take me home because my street bad. A set of holes along the road. The taxi men saying the road damaging their vehicles,” one resident identified as “Shanta” said.Another Diamond-Grove inhabitant highlighted that his street consists of “sharp holes” and so whenever he drives along it, his car would “make a hard drop”, and this has caused him trouble since he has to make check-ups with his mechanic more often.Denise Shortt, of Diamond-Grove told this publication that she has resided in the scheme for a number of years and though repairs have been continuously done on the roads, it has proven fruitless since it restoration does not last for any significant time: “I living in here for years and they keep repairing roads, all the time they repairing and repairing.What’s the sense of doing temporary repairs? I know it can’t last forever but when they mek the roads, by next two weeks, it bruk-up again. Watch in first bridge deh. They make up the first few front roads and left the others. Why? Just fuh nice up in front? Come on man. This is ridiculous. It’s high time they fix it,” she said.When Guyana Times spoke to a taxi operator of the scheme, he voiced that though he would at times give in and take people to their homes regardless of the rocky journey to get there, the deplorable roads serves as a great inconvenience to everyone since it proves to not only be tedious but costly to the vehicles that would traverse the area.“Nobody don’t want go in them bad roads. Sometimes I does feel sorry for people and carry them in but the bad road really keeping people back. You know how much money yuh wasting for pay mechanic every time? And the people that don’t hav cars to carry them in, ga walk in no matter how far. They really should fix it, man,” said the taxi driver.
Lawrence KennedyBy Lawrence KennedyThe Speaker of Liberia’s House of Representatives, Dr. Bhofal Chambers, took an extraordinarily bold step in addressing issues surrounding the crippling Liberian economy. In so doing, he suggests a cause of the problem, but offers, what some believe, are ineffectual doses that disregard the underlying weaknesses in the country.The Speaker recommends Liberia scraps the use of its dual currencies regime and return to using the United States (U.S.) dollar as the sole currency – an audacious move towards complete dollarization. While we agree that Speaker Chambers is correct on the inflation-stopping powers of dollarization – notably, it will bring down inflation fast; we disagree due to the economic hardship we foresee in the years following dollarization. Furthermore, while dollarization is an easy sell during periods of inflation, it is not a credible monetary policy.“Liberia’s major problem is the astonishing collapse in productivity and output, and a lack of credible data to make an informed decision – hence, the formation of the National Economic Development Corporation of Liberia.” Lawrence KennedyLiberians will come to understand that the government’s ability to tweak the exchange rate to manage the adverse effects of negative price movements is an essential part of maintaining socio-economic stability, and that losing these means by dollarizing the Liberian economy will have a serious negative impact that will be felt for many years and even inhibit economic growth.In the long term, dollarization on its own in Liberia will not work because it will lead to a period of deflation and damage Liberia’s extractive sector – the bread and butter of the Liberian economy. Liberia needs more structural reforms including things like keeping fiscal spending under tight control, eliminating budget deficits, using technology to improve inefficiencies in all government ministries, using technology to reduce corruption (the development killer), and increasing foreign direct investments.Without these essential reforms, dollarized or not – the economy will fail. Additionally, it will not matter if the legislators were to collect 10% and etched dollarization in Liberia’s Constitution, or if the Speaker and every supporter of dollarization tattoos a dollar on their forehead.What is Dollarization?Since the end of the Bretton Woods system of fixing exchange rates collapsed between 1968 and 1973, members of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been free to choose any form of exchange agreement. Some of these agreements include the following: allowing their currency to float freely against other currencies, pegging their currencies to another country or a basket of currencies, adopting the currency of another country, engaging in a currency bloc, or forming part of a monetary union. The collapse of this system created new problems and some new solutions. One solution is to abandon the country’s official currency and adopt a more stable currency – such as the U.S. dollar. Hence, the term dollarization emerged, and it is short for saying the use of any foreign currency by another country. By adopting dollarization, Liberia will move from its unofficial quasi-form of partial dollarization to full dollarization.The Attractiveness of DollarizationThere are effective arguments for and against dollarization. Many prominent economists, especially from countries dealing with very high inflation, have argued that the adoption of the U.S dollar is the ultimate solution to challenges in the foreign exchange market and monetary policy. Some economists have even gone to the extent to suggest that all developing countries should dollarize.In Europe for example, many countries have given up their domestic currency and adopted the Euro. However, most European countries have a lot of the structural reforms in place. The decision to move towards dollarization is very complicated and is even more challenging because of a lack of empirical and experiential evidence to support this concept.While we see some merits to this strategy, we are also raising several issues for additional discussions as well, including:The condition under which Liberia started using the U.S. Dollar as its sole legal tender no longer exists.Geopolitically, the U. S. has no vital interest in Liberia as it once did.Today, the U.S. views Liberia from two lenses – historical and humanitarian.Liberia serves no purpose to U.S. national interest, especially in these changing times.part of, if not most of, Liberia’s economic and political standing would disappear. Does the Speaker know the implication?Moreover, even in his earnest attempt to establish the cause of the country’s economic woes, the Speaker also committed two fundamental errors by: 1) He casts partial blame on the former President, Madam Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf; 2) The Speaker made some highly suggestive conclusions.The question for the Speaker is: where was the legislature when everything took place under the Sirleaf regime? Speaker Chambers blamed former President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf for the current economic problems but left out the Liberian Legislature which has the power to pass laws, rectify contracts and agreement as well as pass I have had some principled differences with former President Sirleaf. However, casting 380-degree blame on her when things go wrong just because she was the president of the country will not work. To address and refocus the Liberian economy requires having a responsible and “serious” legislature. The Speaker perhaps can help in ensuring this happens.The Cost of DollarizationA well-known cost of full dollarization is the loss of seigniorage. The concept of seigniorage is the government’s ability to make a hefty profit from issuing coinage that costs very little to mint than its face value – which is essentially the same with paper currencies. Liberia’s ability to issue its currency is a source of revenue for the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL). Additionally, the CBL must buy back all the Liberian Dollars held by the public and the banks.As stated in a discussion on how to stabilize the Liberian Dollar, we can agree that the CBL does not have the wherewithal or adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the Liberian Dollar in the foreign exchange market. So, again, where will the CBL obtain $84 million U.S. dollars to redeem the LD$13 billion or more in the Liberian economy?Liberia Needs Structural ReformMr. Speaker, lawmakers in the U.S., worry and are more concerned about creating jobs in their districts and for the people they represent. Most lawmakers in the U.S. are personally lobbying for businesses and corporations to relocate or move to their states or political districts.When the monthly employment, unemployment as well as unemployment rates are announced, lawmakers in the U.S. jump up and down because they know that when their constituents don’t have jobs, all hell will break loose.Can the Honorable Speaker tell Liberians as to how many lawmakers do care if Liberians have jobs? How many even think of wooing a company to their districts? How many know the “real” unemployment rate in their district and county? Can the Honorable Speaker say why the Liberian Legislature always passes and hurriedly ratifies bad deals?It is much easier to blame President Sirleaf — and of course, she deserves serious blaming — but the Legislature holds the true power in Liberia through its ability to override vetoes. Yet, they have played a significant role in damaging the Liberian economy.Just look at their high salary and the unfriendly business atmosphere in Liberia.Let us be clear, Legislatures, as well as leaders and top bureaucrats, in “serious countries” and responsible governments pursue the best minds from their homeland (who are located anywhere on the planet) to help develop their home country. For example, Sierra Leone recently requested a friend, Sengeh, a Ph.D. holder from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and an experienced GE/IBM employee to go back to Sierra Leone to help rebuild the country. He was given the title of Chief Innovation Officer in the Office of the President.In Liberia, we put obstacles in the way of our best minds from adding value to the country.In short, improving the Liberian economy requires a fundamental change of attitude, a new paradigm in doing things, and most importantly transparency, accountability, and respect for the rule of law. Liberia needs structural improvements including things like keeping fiscal spending under tight control, eliminating budget deficits, using technology to improve inefficiencies in all government ministries, using technology to reduce corruption (the development killer), and increasing foreign direct investments. These things are not out of reach for Liberia; we need to bring the right people into the conversation to get these things done.In our next article, we will discuss dollarization in Zimbabwe, Panama and other countries.Share this:Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
Al-Sadd’s Abdelkarim Hassan scored a Beckham-esque goal during his side’s 6-2 AFC Champions League victory Lokomotiv Tashkent. Check it out here…
7 3. Manchester United – Picture this: The Red Devils get the go-ahead from Jose Mourinho, sack Louis van Gaal, Mourinho gets his head turned by Valencia’s eye-watering five-year contract and the Old Trafford club are without a manager. They could do worse than appointing the Dutchman to replace his former mentor. 4. Arsenal – Is this the summer that Arsene Wenger will vacate his north London hotseat after 20 years? Probably not, but in De Boer they would be appointing a young, ambitious manager keen on playing the right football. 7 7 1. Everton – click the arrow, right, to see other possible destinations for De Boer – Roberto Martinez’s time on Merseyside is up after losing the backing of the Goodison Park faithful. De Boer’s agent confirmed his client’s interest in moving to Merseyside and bookies believe a move is probable. 7 7. Paris Saint-Germain – Ambitious PSG failed to get past the Champions League quarter-final stage this season and, despite easing to the Ligue 1 title, the club’s owners are hungry for success. De Boer has won the Champions League as a player and managed Ajax in the group stages on a number of occasions. 7 7 5. Watford – While Watford have impressed since getting promoted from the Championship last term, their league form in 2016 has been, quite frankly, dreadful. Suggestions Quique Sanchez Flores could depart this summer are mounting, as Hornets fans grow increasingly frustrated with some of his methods. A move for De Boer would be some statement of intent from the Pozzo family. 7 2. Valencia – According to the Dutchman’s agent, a move to the Mestalla is another appealing option. The La Liga side are on the lookout for a permanent successor to Gary Neville after Pako Ayestaran was placed in charge until the end of the campaign. 6. Marseille – The Ligue 1 club will be on the lookout for a new manager this summer after sacking Michel in April, with Franck Passi taking charge until the end of the season. How does the south of France sound, Frank? Could Frank de Boer be heading to England this summer? The 45-year-old Dutchman left his role at Ajax on Thursday after six years – a spell which brought four league titles. The club have not won the Eredivisie in the last two seasons, after PSV Eindhoven secured back-to-back titles on Sunday. De Boer’s agent Guido Albers recently admitted: “He would love to join a club like Everton or Valencia.“It’s all about the right philosophy and how they play football. That is what Frank is looking for.”So, now the former Barcelona defender is without a club and keen on a new project with a vision, where could he be heading? talkSPORT looks at some possible destinations – click the arrow, above right, to see the selection.
Inishowen Senator Padraig MacLochlainn has today highlighted his frustration over the lack of Government support for Inishowen following the floods that devastated the region in August. He says that despite raising the issue of funding for Cockhill Celtic Football Club, Swan Park, and Glenevin Waterfall several times over the past two months, no clarification has been given on Government supports.He also says that this type of neglect would “not be allowed to happen anywhere else in this State.” “I have raised every single week now the issues of remaining community amenities, sporting amenities, and farming sectors that have not been properly supported following the serious floods two months ago in the Inishowen peninsula.“In recent days I have learned that that Cockhill Celtic football club… they were devastated by the floods, two of their pitches were destroyed and hundreds of thousands worth of damage done.“Two months later, even though the Minister of Sport and the Chief Whip were on their pitch within a few days – two months on, they have no clue whether they’re going to get any money or financial assistance from the government – it’s completely unacceptable. Completely unacceptable.” Cockhill Celtic Football Club, which hosts eight different teams with over 300 young people being involved, has received no clarification on whether or not they will be receiving Government support.Pic. Leo McColgan, Cockhill Celtic“The issue of Swan Park, a vital community amenity, at the heart of my community, it’s been destroyed – there’s no clarification from the government about whether there’s going to be any funding for that. Glenevin Waterfall – no clarification from the government.“Potato growers, crop growers, who have had their lives destroyed, hundreds of thousands of losses – no clarification from the government on what’s going to happen.“With all due respect, we had a debate here last week with no specific clarification about Donegal even though I thought we were going to get it.“There was supposed to be an announcement yesterday and there was no clarification on these issues again. I’m making it clear here today, I’m going to raise this issue again and again and again and again until the communities that have been devastated in my area get the support that they need – be it the community amenities, the sporting amenities – it wouldn’t be allowed to happen anywhere else in this State. It wouldn’t be allowed to happen.“Now that the cameras have gone, people have been left behind.“So what I’m saying is in no way would a major sporting amenity or community amenity in the one town be allowed to be destroyed like this with no clarification two months on where the funding is going to come from. “What I’m asking today Leader, because you promised this last time we raised this two weeks ago, can I get a specific Minister to respond to me and tell me what’s going to happen in terms of Cockhill Celtic football club, Swan Park, and Glenevin Waterfall, can I please get a specific response on those issues?”Watch: Senator’s frustration over lack of support to flood-stricken Inishowen was last modified: October 25th, 2017 by Elaine McCalligShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)Tags:floodInishowenPADRAIG MACLOCHLAINN
This weekend’s minus tides could be problematic for ocean anglers launching at Eureka’s two public boat ramps. As most boaters are aware, the Eureka public boat ramp off of Waterfront is a muddy mess at low tide. And this weekend’s minus tides fall smack dab in the middle of when the boat launching traffic is typically the heaviest. Saturday’s low of minus 0.8 falls at prime launching time, right around 7:15 a.m. Sunday isn’t much better, with a minus 0.8 right around 8 a.m. Reportedly, it will …
Did we just witness the end of the Warriors’ dynasty? The oddsmakers certainly see it that way as Golden State, for the first time in years, is no longer favored to win the next NBA championship.The devastating injuries to both Klay Thompson (torn ACL) and Kevin Durant (torn Achilles), as well as the uncertainty of their free agency statuses, have allowed the Milwaukee Bucks to become the favorite to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy next season.BetOnline.Ag has made the Bucks the top bet for …
Darwin’s claim to fame is strangely missing when the critical eye reads scientific papers looking for it.Natural selection, everyone knows, is Darwin’s prize theory. With natural selection, he could explain humans from bacteria. But for that much progress to come out of a blind, aimless process* that selects random variations,* it needs to show some true creative ability. Think of the fantastic organs and systems in a bird, a dinosaur, or a human being! What incredible amounts of programmed information must have arisen since the first cell. Surely there must be evidence for awesome creative power in Darwin’s “mechanism” of natural selection.*Proof that natural selection is equivalent to the Stuff Happens Law.Be Not DeceivedFirst, though, we need to know what natural selection is not, because secular scientists use the word “selection” for several non-creative processes. They also use other related terms that are non-creative. Natural selection is not:Artificial selection: choice by intelligent minds is opposite Darwin’s mechanism.Purifying selection: this eliminates harmful variations.Stabilizing selection: this keeps things as they are.Balancing selection: similar to stabilizing selection.Negative selection: this eliminates information.Conservation: means no change has occurred.Hybridization: combines existing information.Introgression: another way of inserting information from another species.Genetic drift: variation without innovation, aim or purpose.Polyploidy and Gene Duplication: copying existing genes or chromosomes.Subfunctionalization: splitting functions of a gene into two genes doesn’t add information.Darwinians also use the following terms, but none of them come with the power to create. Evolutionists merely assume that they have the power to innovate wings, arms, and eyes.Environmental selection: blind nature has no power to innovate – only eliminate.Sexual selection: if this notion works at all, it only exaggerates existing information.Group selection: groups have no more inherent power to create than individuals.Kin selection: related individuals have no more inherent power to create than individuals.Multilevel selection: two or more units of selection have no more inherent power than one unit.Selection pressure: “stuff happens” is not creative. It doesn’t care which direction an organism goes.What Darwin needs is “neo-functionalization,” a new function appearing from random variation. This is also called “positive selection” or innovation, or novelty. This is what Darwin needs to build people from bacteria: lots of novelty—and not just any new thing, but new things that work, that build things and create new designs by chance. Novelty must be based in huge amounts of new genetic information that specifies how to make the new trait. So when looking for natural selection in the original Darwinian sense, one must keep the eyes on the ball and not be distracted by these other concepts. Except for artificial selection, none of them – alone or in combination – has any inherent ability to create new complex, functional information.Natural Selection: Where Is It?It’s Not in HistoryModern Synthesis, 1937 (The Scientist). This article discusses the history of neo-Darwinism, the “modern synthesis” that became Darwinian orthodoxy in the 1930s. It mentions natural selection (NS) several times. So where is it? Did Darwin have evidence? “Meanwhile, based on Darwin’s writings, biologists thought natural selection happened in populations, but didn’t have an idea how it worked at the level of organisms.” This, mind you, is decades after Darwin’s book. Then, almost 80 years after Darwin cooked up the theory, they finally cooked up a “model” of NS by applying both Mendelian genetics (Mendel was a theist, not an evolutionist), and Fisher’s population genetics (read about that here). Actual evidence that NS works is hidden in perhapsimaybecouldness words:In his book Genetics and the Origin of Species, published in 1937, Dobzhansky argued that genetic mutations were sources of variability that, through natural selection, could lead to evolutionary change, and he suggested that these processes could lead to speciation of populations that are isolated long enough.But all the actual experimentation on fruit flies showed devolution (downward, harmful change), not evolution. See Michael Behe’s book Darwin Devolves for much more evidence that natural selection is powerless to create upward progress through innovation.It’s Not in SpeculationExploding Stars Probably Didn’t Spur Hominins to Walk Upright (The Scientist). For once, some scientists are willing to call a Darwin just-so story “bizarre” and “weird.” Unfortunately, they do not apply those adjectives to natural selection itself. The just-so story is an idea that a cosmic ray shower sometime millions of Darwin Years ago burned the forests, leaving our ape-like ancestors without trees to climb in. They had to figure out how to get around in the newly-created savannahs, so they began to walk upright. Silly? Yes. But— writer Ashley Yeager continues the storytelling with more bizarre, weird NS ideas. Be on the alert for any actual evidence that NS “selected” any random mutations that started any of the major transformation required for upright walking.The fossil record shows that, around the time that researchers think the transition to bipedalism was happening, apes seemed to be evolving traits associated with less aggression, such as smaller canine teeth. Lovejoy says he thinks that this was partly due to sexual selection by females for males that were better providers instead of better aggressors. Because walking upright might have allowed males to carry more food, this sexual selection therefore could also have favored bipedalism.It’s an interesting hypothesis and has merit, Zipfel says. However, there’s evidence that early bipedal hominins may not have been monogamous, and there may be more than one reason for hominins to have stood up and started walking. In his mind, still, “the drivers of human bipedalism remain largely elusive.”It’s Not in Word CountsGenome-wide misexpression associated with hybrid sterility in Mimulus (monkeyflower) (bioRxiv). Look for evidence of Darwin’s miracle-working innovative power in this preprint on bioRxiv that uses the word “selection” 32 times. In every case, it is either stabilizing selection, purifying selection, recurrent selection with backcrossing (related to hybridization and introgression, or shuffling of existing genetic information), genetic drift, or speculation about what natural selection might do. No progress at all is found; just re-sorting of existing material.It’s Not Within PopulationsGenetic study provides novel insights into the evolution of skin color (Science Daily). This article mentions “strong natural selection” at work in human skin pigmentation, hair color, and the like. Those traits are small potatoes compared to a lung, a skeleton, and a heart.Dr Kaustubh Adhikari (UCL Genetics Institute), said: “Our work demonstrates that lighter skin colour evolved independently in Europe and East Asia. We also show that this gene was under strong natural selection in East Asia, possibly as adaptation to changes in sunlight levels and ultraviolet radiation.”But Darwin’s theory was about the origin of new species, not variations within one species, Homo sapiens. All humans are interfertile. All have the same genome. Why is Adhikari bringing up skin color as an example of natural selection? What is he, a racist?It’s Not in Observational ScienceIntegrating vision and echolocation for navigation and perception in bats (Science Advances). In this paper studying how bats echolocate, two scientists “conclude that sensory integration is task dependent and that bimodal information is weighed in a more complex manner than previously suggested.” They have no need of evolution or NS to do their work. Not a single instance of any of that enters into this paper. It doesn’t appear in the summary in Phys.org, either.Natural selection: Where is it? Only in words, not in evidence. Next question: Who needs it?See also: “Darwinians Cannot Agree on What Natural Selection Is,” 2 April 2018.“Time to Ditch Natural Selection?”, 3 Oct 2015.(Visited 507 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
The global Passive House community is converging on Darmstadt, Germany, this week to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Kranichstein Passive House and the 20th anniversary of the International Passive House Conference.A great deal has changed in the world of building performance since the Kranichstein Passive House was first built. Much of that change we can attribute directly to the influence of this iconic building and the spread of the Passive House standard (which was derived from the efforts of Dr. Wolfgang Feist and others to model and optimize this particular building.) Triple-pane windows are now readily available in both Europe and North America, as are heat-recovery and energy-recovery ventilation units. A growing awareness of the benefits of airtight construction and detailing are also largely attributable to the global spread and influence of the Passive House standard.My motivation for studying the Kranichstein building was largely coincidental. It grew out of my involvement in developing an optimization tool to help Passive House designers and energy modelers. The tool is called PDT-Passivhaus, or Predictive Design Technology for Passivhaus. This led me to dig a little deeper into how the Kranichstein project was designed and modeled.My explorations revealed much about the evolution of the Passive House standard and my hope is that both the development of this optimization tool and information it has uncovered will be both interesting and helpful to others. Why Kranichstein?Quite conveniently, every copy of the PHPP software is supplied with a complete example project file of the Kranichstein Passive House building as the example project. We used this example file to develop the early versions of our optimization tool. It gave us a deep appreciation for both the complexity of the Passive House Planning Package and the effort that was taken in the design of the Kranichstein project.Figure 1: Multi-variable optimization sample graphThe evolution of our optimization tool led us to develop two functions. The first is the ability to explore a range of options for a number of single variables whilst all other variables remain fixed. We’ve named this “multi-variable optimization.” This option results in a simple graphic output, plotting each variable’s parameters on the X-axis against four Y-axis graphs of Heat Load, Heating Demand, Cooling Demand, and Primary Energy.Figure 2: Full optimization sample graphThe second user option enables the user to select a number of variables, define their individual parameters, and then have these all run simultaneously against each other to calculate the best performing combination of each of these variables against each other. We’ve called this option “full optimize.” The output of this run is a sine wave graph/plot, combined with a downloadable data table, listing their combinations numerically.After looking at the option to allow users to select any cell within the PHPP to explore as a variable, we elected to provide a carefully curated a set of variables that we found to have the largest impact on building performance. These would help our users to quickly and efficiently optimize their designs without wasting time on selecting insignificant and variables that would not make improve building performance. What we found at KranichsteinWhen running the Kranichstein project through our optimization tool, it became immediately apparent that every single one of the variables we selected was perfectly and precisely optimized to the Passive House standard’s heat load target of 10 W/m².It also became apparent that its more widely known certification alternate, the heating demand target of 15 kWh/m²yr, was not as significant. Despite there clearly being a correlation between the 10 W/m² target and the heating demand target of 15 kWh/m²yr, it was clear that heating demand played a minor role in the design and selection of the Kranichstein assemblies and components.All assemblies and components used in the Kranichstein building hewed very closely to the 15 kWh/m²yr target, with the exception of the specific window areas for each elevation. While the sum total window surface area of the building readily tracked both the heat load and heating demand targets, individually the total window areas for the south, north, and west orientations nailed the heat load target, but were clearly well below the 15 kWh/m²yr heating demand metric.Figure 3: Multi-variable outputs for Kranichstein assemblies, areas and components. Alternate design choices in SaskatchewanThe optimization options I found above that hypothetically allow the Blue Heron EcoHaus to meet the Passive House standard are only three of the many available to those who choose to explore their options. It was highly gratifying to discover that the early pioneers of superinsulated homes in Saskatchewan had recommended many of the same choices indicated by the optimization runs of both the Kranichstein Passive House and the Blue Heron EcoHaus.In a paper submitted by Robert S. Dumont, Robert W. Bresant, Grant Jones, and Rod Kyle and presented at the SESCI Conference in 1978 in London, Ontario, just up the road from the Blue Heron EcoHaus, the authors make the following recommendation in their summary: “For conventional light-frame construction using gypsum wallboard as the interior finish, and no additional thermal mass, one should limit the south-facing window area to less than 8% of the floor area of the dwelling. Additional window area will only result in excessive heat gain during the day and too rapid temperature falls at night.”They also offer an alternate to the quad-pane windows I’ve modeled in my hypothetical design above. “Thermal shutters can be of significant value in reducing both the heat loss from dwellings and in moderating the temperature falls at night in well insulated dwellings.” Notably, the Saskatoon project monitored in this study had quadruple-glazed widows of almost the same total 32.5 m² window area as the Blue Heron EcoHaus.A great many lessons and conclusions may be drawn from the study of these three particular buildings. By virtue of the optimization tool that I’ve been able to utilize, I’ve isolated what I believe to be a clear thread of links that connect them:The Saskatchewan Conservation House focused on managing losses rather than maximizing gains. It accomplished this by not over-glazing the house and by adding exterior insulating shutters. This resulted in a building that experienced very even interior temperatures – a hallmark of a well-designed Passive House.When this same concept of managing losses was applied to the Blue Heron EcoHaus, it was able to hypothetically meet the Passive House standard via the 10 W/m² heat load certification metric. In Saskatoon, at this heat load target, the heating demand number fell between 25 and 27 kWh/m²yr, depending on the specific design choices made for the project.The Kranichstein Passive House was clearly optimized and designed around the 10 W/m² heat load target. For that project location in Darmstadt, the heat load target resulted in a heating demand number of 14 kWh/(m²yr), indicating that the heat load target is the preferred target metric for optimization in more varied climates. Bronwyn Barry is a Certified Passive House Designer and the co-president of the North American Passive House Network. Looking at other projectsThis exploration of Kranichstein in isolation wasn’t as interesting until I applied the insight it gave me to the design and optimization of other buildings. I’d always been troubled by the post by the owner of the Blue Heron EcoHaus in Saskatoon, published at Green Building Advisor.In this post, Kent Earle generously shared the specifications and Hot2000 energy model predictions for his project. While it seemed like he may have originally hoped to meet the Passive House standard, his project did not meet the standard’s rigorous target metrics. He conceded that while building to the Passive House standard in Saskatoon may indeed be possible, “you’d be looking at making huge financial investments and sacrificing comfort” to achieve it.From looking at his building design, I wasn’t so convinced. Given the fact that much of the research that undergirds the calculations within the PHPP has been derived from projects (for examples, the Saskatchewan Conservation House) located in right in his back yard and in other climates very similar to Saskatoon, I undertook some exploration of my own.Figure 4: Blue Heron EcoHouse, first PHPP run, before optimization.The first run of the PHPP model I developed for the Blue Heron EcoHaus confirmed similar results to what Mr. Earle had shared from the Hot2000 model run on his building. My first stop to find clues on how this building could have been optimized to meet the Passive House standard took me to the Energy Balance Graph. This gem is carefully hidden on the annual heating sheet of the PHPP. It readily revealed three obvious opportunities to optimize this design.Windows were easily the biggest energy losers in this design, with 23.5 kWh/m²yr literally being thrown out the window. Ventilation losses via envelope leakage and recovery efficiency were next at 14.6 kWh/m²yr, closely followed by losses through the exterior walls to ambient of 14.3 kWh/m²yr.Figure 5: Energy balance graph from Blue Heron EcoHaus PHPPBy running this project through a full optimization run, selecting the individual assemblies, total window surface area, average window U-factor, airtightness benefit, and ventilation recovery efficiency, I was able to quickly determine how to meet the Passive House standard for this project. The results indicated that my best opportunities lay in:Reducing the total window surface area from 30.45 m² to half that amount.Increasing the thermal performance of the windows from 1.24 W/m²K to 0.62 W/m²K.Increasing the airtightness of this building from 0.6 ach50 to 0.2 ach50.These three improvements allowed a reduction in the walls, roof and sub-slab insulation. This reduction in the thickness of the walls would have provided a few additional feet of interior usable space. Most significantly, the reduction in total window area would have halved the window costs on this project – an expense that is typically one of the highest component costs for any high-performance building. In addition, halving the window area would drastically increase the interior comfort of this building, and most importantly remove much of the very real risk of overheating for a project in this location with such a large number of unshaded east and west-facing windows.Figure 6: Blue Heron EcoHaus before and after thermal values, areas, and airtightnessAs with the Kranichstein building, once the three changes listed above were implemented, this project met the Passive House certification criteria via the heat load target metric of 10 W/m². It also hypothetically shared the same airtightness target of 0.2 ach50. (This more stringent airtightness metric makes good sense for buildings in climates with extreme temperature differentials such as Saskatoon, where sub-zero winter temperatures create a massive pressure drive through any holes in the building envelope.)Figure 7: Blue Heron EcoHaus PHPP verification (after optimization). Why optimization?Since beginning my journey into the complexities and nuances underpinning the Passive House standard, it became apparent that the habit of optimization for building design is not common practice. (Optimization is the search for the best combination of components, areas, and assemblies to achieve the comfort and performance criteria of the Passive House standard in an economic manner.)Many projects that have met the Passive House standard have clearly done so by being “shoehorned” into fitting the criteria, often by throwing large sums of money into expensive assemblies and components, rather than by optimizing the design to creatively meet the performance criteria. I, too, am guilty of this. It’s easy to not take the time to review a project more carefully to search for opportunities to improve my designs, particularly in a benign climate like California. Once you’ve managed to make your building comply with the performance metrics of the standard, why explore further options?When approached by a team of software engineers, looking for an opportunity to use their optimization algorithm for building energy modeling, I was intrigued. The PHPP had yet to offer an optimization process or a clear method for easily enabling building designers to quickly and efficiently explore thousands of iterations. The opportunity to help create this was highly appealing. RELATED ARTICLES Passivhaus For BeginnersThe 2015 Passive House Conference in GermanyA Passivhaus Conference in GermanyReport from the Passive House Conference in Maine Highlights from the North American Passive House ConferenceNew Passive Building Standards for North AmericaRedefining PassivhausForgotten Pioneers of Energy EfficiencyPHIUS PHlogging